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Drivers of change and their indicators

There is a large number of concepts and terms that have been used to define drivers of change. Here we have followed the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005) approach that defines drivers as "any natural or human induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem" and which subsequently divides drivers into two categories:

• 'direct drivers', which have a direct impact on ecosystems (e.g. land-use change), and
• 'indirect drivers' whose impacts are more diffuse (e.g. human population density, GDP)

Mapping of drivers at multiple administrative levels

A list of the most important drivers that affect biodiversity was compiled and relevant indicators for each driver were identified. Since the purpose of this mapping exercise was to explore scale sensitivity of drivers, the final list of drivers (indicators) to be mapped included only drivers for which data was available at multiple administrative levels (at all four levels of the European NUTS nomenclature). The values of the indicators that have been used to generate the multiple maps were standardised by area (extent of each NUTS). A series of maps illustrating the intensity of each driver (indicator) at NUTS0, NUTS1, NUTS2 and NUTS3 are can be found by selecting the appropriate indicator at the search tool at the top right of this site.

Select indicator  - - choose -- Afforestation Age structure under 15 Age structure 15-65 Age structure over 65 Agricultural Conversion Arable area Deforestation Employment in agriculture Employment in industry Employment in services Farm size Farm standard gross margin Farmers training level Forest Area Pastures Gross Domestic Product Irrigation Livestock density Mortality Permanent crops area Population density Tourism Unemployment Urban area Urbanization Utilised Agricultural Area Wetland Loss Women in active population

Quantification of scale sensitivity of drivers of change

In order to quantify the scale sensitivity of indicators the following two key variables were used across administrative levels: "change in intensity" and "evenness". Change in intensity (I) was assessed by measuring the relative change in the median of an indicator at a given administrative level compared to NUTS level 0. Intensity is equal to zero at NUTS level 0 and can either be positive or negative for other levels. Evenness was measured using Shannon's Evenness Index (E) which is derived from Shannon's diversity index. The values of the above two variables for each driver (indicator) across all different administrative levels were then plotted on a two-axes graph, which provides a visual summary of the relative scale sensitivity of each driver of change.

Typology of scale sensitivity of drivers of change

A typology of scale sensitivity of drivers of change was developed by classifying the respective indicators into five categories according to the way their intensity and evenness change across the four administrative levels. The analysis was performed with the R software using the Ward's agglomerative clustering method.

Classification of drivers (indicators) according to their scale sensitivity

Class	Scale sensitivity	Evenness
1	Very low	Almost no change
2	Low	Slight increase
3	Moderate	Moderate increase
4	High	Moderate increase
5	Very High	Large increase

References